During the lean season from June to August, households are likely to face increased food consumption deficits, pushing more populations in risk areas into a critical food crisis threshold. 

As many as 30.6 million Nigerians across 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory will experience acute food and nutrition insecurity between June and August.

The Cadre Harmonisé report on Acute Food and Nutrition Insecurity in Nigeria indicated that despite the declining food and general commodity prices across the country, an estimated 24.9 million people are currently in a food crisis.

The report, conducted by the federal and state governments with the support of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and other development partners, revealed that the figure includes 150,978 internally displaced persons (IDPs).

The situation could worsen by May, it said.

The analysis projected that during the lean season from June to August, households would likely face increased food consumption deficits, adding that the seasonal challenge could push more populations in risk areas into a critical food crisis threshold.

The northeast region is particularly affected, with critical levels of acute malnutrition reported in central Borno, northern Yobe and parts of eastern Sokoto. The affected local government areas in northern Borno include Mobbae and Ngarcail.

Key drivers of the food crisis

The report attributed the development to conflicts and climatic shocks.

It said households face limited purchasing power and capacity to secure sufficient dietary intake.

The key drivers of the food crisis situation include conflict and insecurity, such as insurgency, banditry and kidnapping, as well as a high level of vulnerability limiting households’ ability to cope with shocks.

Other factors include high food prices, reduced food stocks at the household level, limited income-generating activities, inadequate food consumption and limited access to clean water and sanitation.

We hardly eat once a day

“Our farms were washed away by the devastating flood in September 2024. Prior to the flood, we thought we would have the best farming season. But there was nothing left for us after the flood,” said Falta Ali Bukar, a woman farmer in the Dikwa Local Government Area of Borno State.

“We are having a tough time with our families. We hardly eat once a day. We are not sure of what is going to happen to us in the next three months.”

Now we are safe, but we are still hungry

Farmer Usman Bukar told RNI that apart from the flood, there had been frequent attacks by members of the Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’way Wa’l-Jihād (JAS), more commonly referred to as Boko Haram, and its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).

“We were severely affected by attacks by armed groups which resulted in many deaths and abductions for ransom. Our ability to farm was destroyed. Many of us abandoned our crops during the harvesting season because of frequent attacks by insurgents. We feared for our lives.

“Now we are safe, but we are still hungry,” Bukar said.

Expert opinion

“The report indicates that the food crisis will start from June and continue over the rainy season. During the wet season, it is expected that food items will be more expensive because food is scarce during that period.

“The food items or commodities available will be mostly left over from the harvest of the previous rainy season. That’s why food becomes scarce and this is what will lead to the expected acute food crisis,” said Isa Bukar Kumshe, a food security specialist at the Mohammed Goni College of Agriculture.

Insecurity and climate change are a threat to food security

“The frequent attacks on farmers during the rainy season, particularly in northeastern and northwestern regions of the country, are a major threat to food security.

“Apart from the insecurity, farmers in the northern part of the country experienced devastating flooding as well as droughts,” Kumshe said.

Not too late to act

“The report is alarmingly disturbing and there is need for the government to act now,” Kumshe warned. “It is not too late – if the government acts now, there is a possibility that the acute food crisis will be prevented, or at least the impact might be mitigated.”

Situation dire, says FAO

The FAO said its assessment indicated that 1.2 million people in Adamawa, 1.7 million in Borno and 1.4 million in Yobe will be among the worst affected during the coming lean season.

FAO country representative Kouacou Dominique Koffy described the situation as dire, emphasising that “we have faced unprecedented times in the country and region, with multiple shocks affecting livelihoods and food security”.

He called for immediate and sustained intervention from the government, humanitarian organisations and the private sector to prevent the crisis from escalating further.

He pointed out that in the past two years, the country has recorded the worst inflation in more than 20 years, which drove many households into economic hardship, making it difficult for them to secure food and other essential commodities.

The country also witnessed the negative impacts of extreme climatic hazards, particularly flooding, as well as armed conflict and organised crime, which had perpetuated insecurity for so long, compounding other drivers of food insecurity.

AYSHA MUSTAPHA KOLOMI