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‘Insurgency in Borno State will end in two years, God willing’

5 December 2024
Reading time: 6 minutes

Governor says attacks have dropped by 90% and all that is left is to ‘deal with the remnants’ – the pockets in the Lake Chad region, Sambisa Game Reserve and the Mandara Hills.

Tens of thousands of people have lost their lives in the “Boko Haram insurgency” and more than three million have been displaced in the 15-year conflict – but it will end within two years.

So said Borno State governor Babagana Umara Zulum in an interview on Sunday, December 1. He said attacks were down by 90% and all that was left was to “deal with the remnants”.

“As of now, the insurgency has reduced by 90% in Borno State and we have hope that within two years, the insurgency will come to an end, God willing,” Zulum said.

“We still have pockets of Boko Haram attacks, especially at the fringes of Lake Chad, the Sambisa Game Reserve and in the Mandara Hills. There is need for us to tighten our belts and deal with the remnants of the insurgency.”

Zulum did not say how the insurgency would be stopped.

The main protagonists of the conflict are the Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’way Wa’l-Jihād (JAS), more commonly referred to as Boko Haram, and its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Bandits and common criminals have added to the insecurity.

Borno State is the epicentre of the insurgency but over the years fighting has spread to all countries in Lake Chad Basin region.

The economies of the region have faltered and today 11.1 million people across Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon need humanitarian assistance, according to the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect.

The insurgents have perpetrated widespread atrocities, including murder, rape and kidnapping. Their tactics include suicide bombings, abductions, torture, rape, forced marriages, recruitment of child soldiers and attacks against government infrastructure, traditional and religious leaders and civilians.

Since the start in 2009 it is estimated that about 50,000 people have been killed and more than three million displaced.

Zulum said JAS insurgents had recently attacked Chadian troops.

“Because of this, the Chadian authorities have taken a strong decision to repel the Boko Haram/insurgents in their territory. They have succeeded in sending them away and most of them are now in Nigeria, especially in Borno State.”

He commended the efforts of the military and members of the Civilian Join Task Force, as well as the people of Borno State, for their resilience.

He said the region would witness improvement in the next two years as troops work tirelessly to secure the state.

Zulum said he was hopeful “the issue of terrorism will be crushed within the next two years as Nigeria collaborates with neighbouring Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Mali”.

Without naming any individuals or groups, Zulum said a major reason the insurgency was still ongoing was that certain individuals were benefiting from the conflict and they had no interest in “seeing the crisis come to an end”.

The “beneficiaries” were not only in Borno State but were “spread across different parts of the country, cutting across all levels of society, from civilians to military personnel”.

“Among the population. I cannot say who; we still have some people who do not want to see the end of this crisis. They are benefiting from it, not only civilians; it cuts across all strata.”

He said many informants in Borno had been arrested over the years. Military personnel had also been arrested for supplying ammunition to insurgents.

Zulum said there was also a “high level of foreign intrusion in the state, which aids the activities of insurgents”.

Shettima Mamman, the head of the department of criminology and security studies at the Mohammed Goni College of Legal and Islamic Studies in Maiduguri, said for the government to end the insurgency in two years there needed to be renewed commitment and political will.

“Currently, there are no clear steps or practical measures in place to end the insurgency in the next two years. If the government is truly concerned about bringing an end to the insurgency, then it would not take even two years.

“The Nigerian troops are not as motivated as they should be. There is a need to invest heavily in our defence system because of the insecurity across the country, which has exposed many lapses in the sector and it is time that we learn from our mistakes.

“But it does not seem as if we have learnt our lesson,” Mamman said.

“If the government continues as they are at present, then – I’m sorry to say – the insurgency will not be over in even 10 years. There is a need to go back to the drawing board and study what has truly gone wrong.”

Mamman told RNI that the government needed to stand its grounds to bring an end to the insurgency, if not, “the two-year prognostication is mere words and assumptions”.

“African countries, especially Nigeria, should emulate the Chadian troops. As you can see, they started the fight with insurgents less than a month ago and they have recorded many successes.

“The Chadian troops have modern and standard ammunitions which are needed in wars and in the fight against insurgents.

“If the government truly wants to bring an end to the insurgency, it should equip Nigerian troops with modern ammunitions. Then, within the shortest possible time, they would bring an end to this insurgency.

“If you use local government areas in Borno State, such as Kukawa, Abadam, Marte and Damasak, it is not clear who is in control. They are always under attack and this keeps happening not because we do not have the security personnel to fight them but because the personnel are not equipped with modern ammunition meant for war.

“Nigerian security personnel need to be suitably motivated. Every day these people sacrifice their lives to protect us.

“Yes, there have been improvements compared with 2012/2013. At that time, the troops were complaining about pay. They said that when they did receive their allowances, they were negligible. This sort of thing needs to be rectified to build motivation.

“It is true there has been a reduction in the number of attacks by insurgents – but not by 90%.

“Konduga is about 25km from Maiduguri. On Wednesday last week, insurgents attacked Malari town in Konduga. And most areas surrounding Lake Chad are still troubled by insurgents. To say that the fighting has reduced by 90% is outrageous. There have been improvements but not by 90%.

“If attacks have reduced by 90%, why can’t people farm freely? Why do vehicles have to have military escorts? And why are there still so many attacks on innocent people?”

Mamman said that for the insurgency to end, the government and development partners needed to address the root causes of the crisis.

“Military force is not enough,” he said.

 

AYSHA MUSTAPHA KOLOMI

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AYSHA MUSTAPHA KOLOMI