At least 113 million people in Africa will be forced to migrate and face displacement by 2050 because of climate change and, if they’re not uprooted, they might be trapped where they are.

This is according to a new report, African Shifts, which documents the current realities of climate-forced migration and displacement in Africa. It uses the term “climate mobility” to capture the movement motivated by the adverse effects of sudden or slow-onset climate impacts.

The report was launched by the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative and aims to provide evidence, knowledge and policy recommendations to leaders gathering at the COP27 climate change negotiations in Egypt, where climate adaptation strategies are high on the agenda.

It says the world has made little progress on how to adapt to life on a warmer planet and still lacks the scale and urgency of both collective and transformative action necessary to cut greenhouse gases as per the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

A Moneyweb report said that heatwaves from human-caused climate change had already reduced global economic growth by up to US$29.3 trillion between 1992 and 2013. Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) had been particularly hard hit. One estimate showed GDP per capita for 1991–2010 in Africa was on average 13.6% lower than it could have been if climate change had not occurred.

Global heating could rise to between 2.4℃ and 2.6℃ by 2100, which presented uninsurable risks, even for rich countries.

“In addition, the changes are set to cause losses and damage to Africa’s unique heritage of outstanding and universal value. These impacts will increasingly affect those moving, staying and communities receiving people on the move due to climate change.

“All life on earth will have to adapt if any industries are to survive for Africa’s future generations. There is a narrow window left to prepare and shift to adaptation in Africa,” said Moneyweb.

Some residents of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, had committed at their own level to combat the climate change crisis and had called on the Nigerian government to take proactive measures to forestall any kind of catastrophic disasters that climate change might cause in the future.

Mohammed Mustapha, who lives in Maiduguri, told RNI that the increase in previously unheard-of devasting floods, wildfires and droughts, particularly in America and in some parts of Europe – as well as in some countries in Africa – were all the result of climate change.

“The Nigerian government needs to take proactive measures to avoid this menace of climate change. I also urge my fellow citizens to take all necessary measures, at our own level, to protect ourselves against what’s predicted to happen in 2050 if we don’t change the way we live. Local farmers in the rural areas who cut down trees must stop; in the towns people must stop blocking drainage systems and they should not build houses along waterways. By doing so, they will avert floodings that are capable of displacing people and destroying their lives and property.

“We should also develop the habit of planting trees and stopping bush burning. As citizens we can’t engage in the serious matters of climate change, but we can take our own measures to consolidate the efforts of the government to protect our lives, our livestock, our lands and our future, and that of the next generation to come, against the effects of climate change.”

Ba Kolo Karagama said: “The advice I want to give to the federal government is that they must be extra careful by taking proactive measures, such as the massive plantation of trees campaign, especially in areas where there are deserts, for example in the northern part of Borno State. However, the government also needs to take care of already existing trees. For instance, it’s evident that most of the local government areas (LGAs) in Borno State where people had been captured by Boko Haram [Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’way Wa’l-Jihād – JAS] insurgents and where there are a lot of trees. One of Boko Haram’s many stongholds is in the Sambisa Forest. No one is taking care of those trees because of the insecurity in northeast Nigeria.

“The government should drill boreholes and employ people to take good care of the trees by watering them, especially now that relative peace and security have returned to those areas. If the government does that, I believe in the future we won’t be affected by the effects of climate change.”

Karagama said the issue of burning of trash in community areas was prevalent.

“The Borno State Environmental Protection Agency is supposed to remove garbage within communities but they’re not doing that. Eventually people put all the garbage in one place and burn it. They are not aware that this that the smoke also contributes to the causes of climate change. In fact, I saw post on Facebook in which residents of a community behind the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) were complaining about the excessive smoke that was caused by the incineration of trash by a non-governmental organisation, Médecins Sans Frontières [also referred to as MSF or Doctors Without Borders].

“As a concerned citizen, I urge every organisation in authority, including NGOs, to take all the necessary proactive measures to forestall the things that will result if climate change is allowed to continue, not only in Borno State but also globally. African countries must take this menace more seriously and do what they can to resolve further climate change.”

Mohammed Husaini Mohammed, an environmental and natural resources expert, told RNI that the African Shifts report showed how catastrophic climate change could be for African countries.

“African countries and/or governments must come up with policies aimed at diversifying agriculture across the continent so that people will have access to improved farmlands with improved farm equipment that would propel huge food production, alleviating famine and poverty, which are often some of the factors that cause migration. For instance, in Nigeria, the government needs to support the farmers, especially those in northern part of the country.

“African countries should also embark on the campaign to plant millions of trees and should take care of their natural forests. Trees are indispensable in protecting floodings and windstorms as well as improving soil fertility, sustaining nature and all kinds of creatures, such as animals, birds and human beings.

“The effects of climate change can’t be fought at once. The government and NGOs need to educate and create more awareness among people about the dangers of climate change. They should be told what the result could be if climate change is not curbed. The awareness campaigns should start at school. They need to be informed so that climate change will not be a problem for the next generation. It’s high time for us to join hands and fight against climate change collectively worldwide.”

• African Shifts painted possible scenarios for future population movements resulting from increasing climate impacts.

The report showed that:

• Most future climate-forced migration and displacement in Africa would take place within countries. This reflected current geographies of movement on the continent.
• The number of people moving to seek protection and better livelihoods would increase from 1.5% of Africa’s population today to as much as 5% by 2050. This amounted to about 113 million people.
• Up to 2.5 million people could leave Africa’s coastal areas due to sea level rise and other stressors. In the Horn of Africa, climate impacts could force up to 9% of the population – as many as 49 million people – to move in the decades ahead. This made the case for adequate planning to build local adaptive capacity, especially in smaller cities and towns. Adapting could enable more people to stay in their home communities.
• The movement of people across borders in response to climate change was expected to be relatively small. Cross-border climate mobility was forecast to reach a maximum of 1.2 million people by 2050 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. This would be a small fraction of the continent’s overall population and a small contribution to the total likely cross-border migration of 11 to 12 million people by 2050. This countered the prevailing narrative of populist leaders and media houses that peddled highly exaggerated numbers of people leaving Africa for high-income and distant countries.
• Importantly, for most on the continent, climate mobility was likely to be a response of last resort. Most Africans were attached to their land and homes and did not aspire to leave their communities. Half of the men and 40% of the women surveyed expressed hope and optimism for the future, despite experiencing severe climate disruptions. For many people relocation was too costly. As a result, some of the most vulnerable people would remain in place, risking forced evacuation or becoming stranded. Those who moved or were forcibly displaced often settled in new locations where they remained vulnerable and exposed to climate risks.

Key actions included: planning for climate mobility; empowering people by informing them of climate risks; transforming development by pursuing community-led solutions for climate-resilient development, disaster response and climate mobility across the continent; and investment in resilient and connected cities by building stronger ties across cities and within rural areas and economies.

African Shifts said countries should pursue nature-positive development. Land, water and other shared natural resources should be managed cooperatively and sustainably to support agricultural and ecosystem-based livelihoods and boost productivity.

The report identified potential “climate hotspots”. These included specific cities that would grow or shrink due to climate mobility and borderlands that would see an increase in climate mobility.

These areas needed to build resilience in near-term actions and long-term strategies.

The steps proposed in the report could avert and minimise the risk of displacement and prepare communities for future arrivals, preventing escalating loss and damage in a warmer future.

SHETTIMA LAWAN MONGUNO